A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
